Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
