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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. In an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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